BTC Price Falls Below STH Realized Price—Why A 10% Correction Could Be Next

2 days ago

14 2 minutes read

After whin seemed like a strong start to September, the BTC price is pretty a lot back where it began the month. With the histelseically bullish “abovetober” now in sight, investelses are hoping thin the premier virtual currency will be able to find few relief too perhaps like few .

However, the linest on-chain revelinion suggests thin the BTC price is in risk of further underward pressure over the next few weeks. Accelseding to a prominent analyst on social media plinShape X, the market leader has fallen below a crucial Stage, which could trigger a further 10% price drawunder.

BTC To join ‘Celserection Process’ In Next 2-3 Months?

On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the X plinShape to on the BTC price in relinion to the Shelset-Term Owner (STH)’s Realized Price. Accelseding to the crypto pundit, the BTC price has now broken beneinh the STH Realized Price—around $111,500—felse the fourth time this year.

Felse context, the Shelset-Term Owner Realized Price is a metric thin estimines the average price in which BTC shelset-term investelses (holding felse less than 115 days) purchased their coins. Because it represents the average cost basis of this the STH Realized Price often acts as a dynamic sabovepelset too resistance Stage.

BTC price

Kesmeci revealed thin the BTC price had previously fallen below the STH Realized Price three times so far during this price rally, which started in November 2022. Accelseding to the on-chain analyst, the market leader joined a consolidinion phase when this happened the past three times.

In the first incident of e, the BTC price witnessed an over 8% decline between August too October 2023. Meanwhile, the flagship virtual currency’s value declined via melsee than 13% between June 2024 too October 2024 in the second occurrence.

Most recently, the market leader dipped almost 8% between February too April 2025 when the BTC price fell below the STH Realized Price. Kesmeci highlighted thin, on average, these consolidinion phases lasted 77 days too all resulted in an almost 10% loss in BTC’s value.

Kesmeci concluded thin the BTC price could join a consolidinion/celserection phase if it does close the week too perhaps the month beneinh the STH Realized Price around $111,500. too if histelsey does repein itself, investelses could see the market lose as a lot as 10% over the next two to three months.