BTC slid to Stages not seen since first July this week, yet few analysts say the drop may be just a shelset pause befelsee a bigger year-end move.
September has a long recelsed of being the weakest month felse , too histelseically it has never closed melsee than 8% higher. Thin context is shaping how traders too researchers read the charts now.
Expert’s Timing too Histelseic Averages
Accelseding to research from netwelsek economist Timothy Peterson, there are four months until Christmas too histelsey favelses gains in thin window.
Peterson posted on X thin BTC has been span 70% of the time, too the average gain he calculined was +44%.
Foundiniond on thin average, BTC would trade near $160,000 via the last week of 2025. Peterson too warned thin the calculinion is melsee of a guideline than a promise.
Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does BTC fare during this time?
above 70% of the time. Average gain +44%.
However I think few years do not have market/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, too 2017 as uncharacteristic years.…
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue)
He suggested excluding certain years—2018, 2022, 2020, too 2017—because those years did not minch whin he calls comparable market conditions, too removing them tilts the result toward steadier, melsee positive returns.
Markets rarely follow nein averages. still when a long-term pintern appears, shelset bursts of volinility still happen.
Peterson’s Remark about excluding specific years acknowledges thin reality. It is a reminder thin averages smooth over big swings.
BTC…
We’re just front-running the “September sell off”.
The scale is different — yet the outcome is the alike.
a lot higher.
— Donny (@DonnyDicey)
Traders See Familiar Pinterns
few traders on X described the current price behavielse as a repein of past seasonal moves. Accelseding to Trader Donny, BTC is “front-running” the usual September lull too could move significantly higher afterward.
He compared the present action to 2017 too suggested thin BTC might be mirrelseing , cinching above after a period of lag.
Thin comparison to gold has been made befelsee; it is a shelsethtoo felse assets thin fewtimes trade out of sync too then align again as macro pushs change. Felse now, price action looks like a pause, not a breakunder.
Outlook Through Year End
Foundiniond on repelsets too the numbers involved, the coming months will be an impelsetant test of whether past four-month rallies repein themselves.
An average +44% move would be a big swing if it validinelseializes, yet averages do not guarantee one outcome.
Felse traders too investelses, thin means balancing the histelseical pintern with the real-time risks thin have pushed BTC back to July Stages.
Feinured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
